Hurricane Gonzalo has weakened, but still remains a Category 4 major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph. Conditions on Bermuda will begin to deteriorate this morning, with tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) expected.
Gonzalo will continue to slowly weaken but is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it impacts Bermuda.
Tune-in to The Weather Channel TV network to watch live coverage on Hurricane Gonzalo. To keep you safe and informed of the latest breaking news, our regular programming will be suspended until the threat has passed.
Hurricane Gonzalo once again strengthened to a Category 4 hurricane Thursday. By late Friday, it is forecast to bring damaging winds and life-threatening storm surge to Bermuda.
Gonzalo became the strongest hurricane, as measured by maximum sustained winds, in the Atlantic Basin since Hurricane Igor in September 2010. Igor also hit Bermuda, but as a Category 1 hurricane.
(MORE: Expert Analysis | Hurricane Central)
Storm Information
A hurricane warning continues for Bermuda, meaning that hurricane conditions -- including sustained winds of at least 74 mph -- are expected on the archipelago.
Bermuda Deja Vu?
Projected Path
Hurricane Gonzalo has made the anticipated right turn, now moving north-northeast, and will make a perilously close pass to Bermuda Friday night, most likely as a Category 3 hurricane.
(FORECAST: Bermuda)
While there is still some timing uncertainty, here is a general forecast timeline for Bermuda:
- Tropical storm-force winds begin: Friday morning
- Hurricane-force winds: Fri. afternoon through Fri. night
- Tropical storm-force winds end: Overnight Fri. night/early Sat. morning
- Intensity at center's closest approach: At least Category 3
Gonzalo's hurricane-force wind field has expanded thanks to Wednesday's eyewall replacement cycle, a process during which an outer ring of convection chokes off the existing eyewall, eventually collapsing inward and replacing it.
Hurricane-force winds are up to 60 miles from the center of Gonzalo. Despite Bermuda being a small target (21 square miles), this larger hurricane-force wind field raises the likelihood of destructive winds over the archipelago Friday, the second time in five days.
As hurricane specialist Michael Lowry points out, average forecast track errors 24 hours out are still around 60 statute miles. Even a 20 to 30-mile difference in track can make a big difference in impact with Gonzalo.
Gonzalo is moving north-northeast thanks to a southward dip in the jet stream coming off the eastern U.S.
This jet stream dip will eventually begin to pinch off the outflow on the western semicircle of Gonzalo. Wind shear will increase and water temperatures will be cooler due to upwelling in the wake of Hurricane Fay (water at the surface of the ocean moves away from the storm center and colder water from below moves to the surface to fill the void).
Therefore, we expect Gonzalo to be weakening as it approaches Bermuda. However, since Gonzalo's forward speed will be increasing, it won't have time to weaken much, and will be doing so from an initial, lofty Category 4 perch, too.
As pointed out by the National Hurricane Center, winds on higher terrain may be up to 30 percent stronger than those near sea-level, an important point to keep in mind given the terrain of Bermuda.
Storm surge flooding, plus flooding due to large, battering waves, is expected in Bermuda Friday. Rainfall from 3 to 6 inches is expected, as well.
Above: Visible satellite image, available only during daylight hours.
There have been only 10 hurricanes whose centers have passed within 75 miles of Bermuda since 1899.
Hurricane Fabian (2003) was the last such hurricane to do so, inflicting an estimated $300 million (U.S.) damage in Bermuda, including extensive damage to trees and significant roof damage to homes. A 10-foot storm surge was estimated.
All interests in Bermuda should begin hurricane preparations immediately and heed the advice of local authorities.
After affecting Bermuda, Gonzalo will then race off to the northeast and may possibly impact Newfoundland this weekend as a strong extratropical low. A few days later it should move into the United Kingdom and/or Ireland with blustery winds and rain.
Hurricane Gonzalo will bring some elevated surf and a rip current threat to the East Coast of the United States through the weekend. Dangerous surf and rip currents are also affecting the north coasts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, as well as parts of the southeast Bahamas.
Recap: Gonzalo's Impact on the Caribbean
Gonzalo, the seventh named storm of the 2014 Atlantic hurricane season, formed as a tropical storm early Sunday afternoon and was upgraded to the season's sixth hurricane late Monday afternoon.
Monday morning, tropical force sustained winds up to 67 mph, with gusts up to 88 mph, were measured at V. C. Bird International Airport on Antigua.
(NEWS: Gonzalo Hammers Leeward Islands)
Air Force Hurricane Hunters early Tuesday morning measured wind speeds supporting an upgrade of Gonzalo to a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale at 2 a.m. EDT Tuesday as the eye passed just northeast of the British Virgin Islands.
Based on satellite data, NHC upgraded Gonzalo to a Category 3 hurricane Tuesday afternoon. That makes Gonzalo the second major hurricane of the 2014 Atlantic season, after Edouard. It's the first major hurricane to form in the tropics -- as opposed to the subtropics -- since Sandy in October 2012.
MORE ON WEATHER.COM: Gonzalo Photos
1 / 43
Hurricane Gonzalo: Bermuda
Residents prep for Hurricane Gonzalo's arrival in Bermuda. (Peter Neilley, The Weather Channel)
Δεν υπάρχουν σχόλια:
Δημοσίευση σχολίου